They first arrived in the '50s, accompanied by funny cardboard glasses, and they were a novelty the way hula hoops were a novelty, all the big talk one day and all but forgotten the next, the glasses, blue on one side, red on the other, tossed with the trash.
Deeply threatened by the arrival of television, Hollywood had bet big on 3D, and lost. Folks remembered the glasses. They forgot the movies.
Now, some 50 years later, 3D is back, this time with more solid expectations, and 2009 is the year they will be borne out. More than 15 major 3D movies will be released this year, including James Cameron’s much anticipated “Avatar,” after several years that saw a handful of releases. “Starting from 2009, but stronger from 2010, 3-D will make a significant difference at the box office,” says David Hancock, head of film and cinema at Screen Digest, a London firm of media analysts.
Though movies have held up well this far into the recession, Hollywood needs a boost to keep growing its share of the entertainment dollar against rising competition. This time around, TV is but one of a slew of distractions.
Box office revenues finished out 2008 at near-record levels, down just 0.06 percent, to $9.616 billion compared to 2007’s record of $9.622 billion. But ticket sales were down 3.84 percent, according to box office tracker Exhibitor Relations.
The big Hollywood studios are looking to 3D to bring Americans back to the tenplex. The technology's big advantage is that is cannot be replicated by home entertainment systems.
“They are really banking on that to rally the industry over the next few years. They are hoping to throw in something that audiences haven’t seen before and can’t do with home entertainment,” says Jeff Bock, analyst at Exhibitor Relations.
So far, this second wave of 3D films has done well, with people paying a premium of $3 to $5 to at the box office. The big question is whether Americans will accept those higher ticket costs as the recession deepens. And will they support not one or two films a year but a whole slew of them?
Conventional wisdom says that people still go to the movies when things get tough but the fear is that they will cut back on the number they see.
One thing in the industry’s favor this year is a strong lineup of movies, and that promises another buoyant year for the box office. One forecaster sees revenue up 5 percent or 6 percent and ticket sales up marginally.
The big-name movies really kick off in March when “The Watchmen,” based on a classic graphic novel of the same name, hits the screens. While directed by Zack Snyder, who did “300,” the movie is considered risky for Warner Bros. because it's R-rated, which is unusual for a comic book adaptation.
“Monsters vs. Aliens,” a CGI movie with a cast including Seth Rogen and Reese Witherspoon, is also due out in March in a 3D version. It will air a 3D commercial during the Super Bowl.
In May, when the summer blockbusters really start coming out, there’s the comedy and action flick “Night at the Museum 2: Battle of the Smithsonian” and J.J. Abrams’ “Star Trek,” which tells the story leading up to the events portrayed in the TV series. There’s also Ron Howard’s “Angels and Demons,” based on a book by Dan Brown of “The Da Vinci Code,” and “X-Men Origins: Wolverine.”
Then later in the summer “Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs” arrives on screens in 3D. A sequel to the 2007 blockbuster “Transformers” also comes out that month, this one called “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.” Also out is the long-awaited “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince,” which is expected to have some segments in 3-D.
And, of course, at the tail end of the year there’s Cameron’s 3D film “Avatar,” as well as another 3D movie, “A Christmas Carol,” directed by Robert Zemeckis.
“If you look at the slate of films, it is very strong. That is one positive thing,” says Bock. "They definitely have the material. Now it’s just will they have the audience."
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Meanwhile, elsewhere in popcult, “Marley & Me” was at No. 1 at the box office over the weekend, bringing in $24.1 million. “Bedtime Stories” remained at No. 2 with $20.3 million in ticket sales.
In DVD rentals for the week ended Dec. 28, according to IMDb.com, “Burn After Reading” jumped from No. 11 to No. 1, followed by “Death Race.”
On iTunes this morning, Lady GaGa’s “Just Dance” was No. 1, followed by Beyonce’s “Single Ladies.”
And in books, Patricia Cornwell’s “Scarpetta” moved to No. 1 on The New York Times’ hardcover fiction best-sellers list for the week ended Dec. 27, although it fell out of the top 10 on USA Today’s book chart for the week ended Dec. 28.
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